Well, it’s in the title. There seems to be two camps of people when it comes to AI: Doomsayers saying it’s coming to take all our jobs and Naysayers who think AI will never replace them.

I have a message to both camps:

• To Doomsayers: Don’t expect widespread AI to take over any time soon.
• To Naysayers: AI will happen faster than you want it to happen.

(Exact timeline conveniently omitted)

That’s because Doomsayers are focused on scientific advancement while Naysayers are focused on societal progress. Both of you should take a look at the other thing instead: Doomsayers should observe societal advancement while Naysayers should be keeping an eye on scientific progress.

I get it, Doomsayers. I really do. You probably see the advancement of AI, of the available tools, and the skyrocketing adoption rate and think that this is happening across all sectors. The problem is, it isn’t — not yet, at any rate. It’s happening to your sector, maybe. But not all sectors.

Take a look at how the Bureau of Labor Statistics lays out the industry sectors:

• Mining
• Construction
• Manufacturing
• Utilities
• Wholesale trade
• Retail trade
• Transportation and warehousing
• Information
• Financial activities
• Professional and business services
• Educational services
• Health care and social assistance
• Leisure and hospitality
• Other services
• Federal government
• State and local government
• Agriculture wage and salary
• Agriculture self-employed
• Nonagriculture self-employed

Now, everyone has a different idea of what exactly AI can replace. But let’s just set the time horizon at 5 to 10 years; how many of these sectors do you truly think AI can replace? Friendly reminder that self-driving cars were promised years ago.

Don’t be too smug yet, Naysayers. I’ve got something for you too: technology is exponential growth.

AI won’t destroy the world super soon the way Doomsayers are banging the drum about, but it’s coming significantly faster than you Naysayers will believe. Once humans make the first AI that is able to truly work on more AI stuff without rest, that’s when the progress in AI will accelerate to a speed the human brain is just not equipped to comprehend.

Think of it this way: how fast can you write an essay with pencil, typewriter, then a computer?

What changes if you don’t need to eat?

What changes if you don’t need to rest?

What changes if you can write multiple essays at the same time?

By exponential growth of technology, we are talking about something like this: let’s say each iteration of AI can halve the time it takes to make the next AI. So each version produces double the output.

• Version 1: Does 2 weeks’ worth of work in 1 week.
• Version 2: Does 4 weeks’ worth of work in 1 week.
• Version 3: Does 8 weeks’ worth of work in 1 week.
• Version 4: Does 16 weeks’ worth of work in 1 week.

In 1 month, you will have done 30 weeks worth of work, or slightly over half a year’s worth.

In 2 months, the technology will have accelerated by 2 years’ worth.

By the time we have AI that can work on itself, we will be accelerating through technology at a speed we cannot comprehend. While the Doomsayers are wrong in that this will take over the world “soon” (because of regulations, implementations, and just the market trying to adjust), the Naysayers would be blindsided if they believe this won’t happen anytime “soon” either.

The time to prepare for it is now.